Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Elena Rybakina
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Elena Rybakina; the market gives 81% to Elena Rybakina (odds 1.17).
Recent form leaves Elise Mertens with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Elena Rybakina has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Elise Mertens | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 1–7 Elena Rybakina (8).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Elise Mertens | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-8.6 | 13.1-9.9 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 43.7% |
H2H · Elise Mertens 1 – 7 Elena Rybakina (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 1–7 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/26 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08/25 WTA Cincinnati | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/06/24 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/01/24 WTA Brisbane | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 27/03/23 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08/21 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/05/21 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/01/20 WTA Shenzhen | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Tatjana Maria French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Veronika Erjavec French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/05 | Alexandra Eala WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 68% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.