Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Maria Sakkari; the market gives 53% to Jasmine Paolini (odds 1.80).
Over their last 10 matches, Jasmine Paolini sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Maria Sakkari arrives on a 5-5 run.
| Jasmine Paolini | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini 2–3 Maria Sakkari (5).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.7 | 11.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 37% | 53.4% |
H2H · Jasmine Paolini 2 – 3 Maria Sakkari (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jasmine Paolini 2–3 Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 WTA Doha | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/08/25 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/04/25 WTA Madrid | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/02/24 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/06/21 French Open Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Solana Sierra French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Dayana Yastremska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Elise Mertens WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/05 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/04 | Hailey Baptiste WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/04 | Laura Siegemund WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 15/04 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Stuttgart · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Clara Tauson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 09/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Claire Liu French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Linda Noskova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/05 | Peyton Stearns WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Elena Rybakina WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Lilli Tagger WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari?
Our model gives 51% to Jasmine Paolini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.