Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Frances Tiafoe; the market gives 55% to Frances Tiafoe (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Frances Tiafoe with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Alexander Bublik has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
| Frances Tiafoe | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1627 vs 1530).
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 90% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.6 | 1.5-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.1-11.3 | 15.2-15.7 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 15.2 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.4% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 35.8% |
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 2 – 2 Alexander Bublik (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 2–2 Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/23 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07/22 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 23-22 | W |
| 20/06/22 ATP Eastbourne | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 30/07/19 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Jan-Lennard Struff French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-26 | L |
| 22/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik?
Our model gives 59% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.