Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 04/07, 12:00
Prediction: Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Madison Keys; the market gives 55% to Madison Keys (odds 1.73).
Over their last 10 matches, Amanda Anisimova sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Madison Keys arrives on a 7-3 run.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amanda Anisimova 1541 · Madison Keys 1598
| Amanda Anisimova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madison Keys (rating 1541 vs 1598).
- Head-to-head: Amanda Anisimova 1–0 Madison Keys (1).
- Note: Amanda Anisimova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Amanda Anisimova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.1 | 12.6-8.6 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 46.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.90
H2H · Amanda Anisimova 1 – 0 Madison Keys (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Amanda Anisimova 1–0 Madison Keys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/25 WTA Finals | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amanda Anisimova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Sofia Kenin Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Lina Gjorcheska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Iva Jovic WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Laura Siegemund WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/05 | Diane Parry French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/03 | Belinda Bencic WTA Miami · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/03 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/03 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Miami · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/03 | Victoria Mboko WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys?
Our model gives 56% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.