Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 04/07, 12:00
Prediction: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Marta Kostyuk; the market gives 55% to Marta Kostyuk (odds 1.73).
Over their last 10 matches, Emma Navarro sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Marta Kostyuk arrives on a 7-3 run.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emma Navarro 1578 · Marta Kostyuk 1611
| Emma Navarro | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Emma Navarro 4–0 Marta Kostyuk (4).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Emma Navarro | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12 | 12.9-8.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Emma Navarro 4 – 0 Marta Kostyuk (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emma Navarro 4–0 Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/25 WTA Bad Homburg | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/06/25 WTA Berlin | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08/24 US Open Women | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/08/24 WTA Toronto | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emma Navarro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Oksana Selekhmeteva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Paula Badosa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Iga Swiatek WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Eva Lys WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 20/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Anna Bondar WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Viktorija Golubic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Katie Volynets French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/05 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/04 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk?
Our model gives 55% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.