Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Zachary Svajda
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Alex De Minaur; the market gives 81% to Alex De Minaur (odds 1.17).
On recent form, Alex De Minaur is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Zachary Svajda 5-5 over theirs.
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1573 · Zachary Svajda 1525
| Alex De Minaur | Zachary Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1573 vs 1525).
- Zachary Svajda dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 43.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Zachary Svajda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-9.5 | 15.9-14.3 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 34.5 · -8.6
Over 34.5: 7% · 1.83
Under 34.5: 93% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-18 | L |
Zachary Svajda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-22 | W |
| 30/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Liam Broady ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 30/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-22 | W |
| 28/05 | Adam Walton French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Zachary Svajda?
Our model gives 70% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.