Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Taylor Fritz; the market gives 85% to Taylor Fritz (odds 1.11).
Recent form leaves Taylor Fritz with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Lorenzo Sonego has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
| Taylor Fritz | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taylor Fritz (rating 1595 vs 1507).
- Taylor Fritz is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 7–2 Lorenzo Sonego (9).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.8 | 1.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-12.8 | 15.3-16.7 |
| Aces | 15.8 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 82.4% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 35.2% | 35.9% |
H2H · Taylor Fritz 7 – 2 Lorenzo Sonego (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 7–2 Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/25 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/08/23 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11/21 ATP Paris | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/04/21 ATP Cagliari | 1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 08/03/21 ATP Doha | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/10/20 French Open | 0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 03/07/18 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 21-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 18/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 14/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-25 | W |
| 18/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 75% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.