Tennis · Challenger Cary · 03/07, 15:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Braden Shick
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Jay Friend; the market gives 59% to Jay Friend (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Jay Friend sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Braden Shick arrives on a 7-3 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1563 · Braden Shick 1547
| Jay Friend | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.7 | 11.8-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Justin Boulais Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/06 | Charlie Camus Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/05 | Justin Boulais Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 29/05 | Fajing Sun Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/05 | Henry Searle Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Karl Poling Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | William Manning M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Johannus Monday Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 56% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.