Tennis · Challenger Cary · 03/07, 16:00
Prediction: Jack Kennedy vs Yosuke Watanuki
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Jack Kennedy; the market gives 71% to Yosuke Watanuki (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Jack Kennedy with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Yosuke Watanuki has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jack Kennedy 1580 · Yosuke Watanuki 1522
| Jack Kennedy | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jack Kennedy (rating 1580 vs 1522).
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 9 aces and 46.1% break avg.
- Jack Kennedy is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jack Kennedy | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-13.2 | 12-10.9 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 9 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 57.7% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 58.1% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jack Kennedy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/05 | Alex Marti Pujolras M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Keaton Hance M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 21/05 | David Naharro M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/05 | Ilias Zimmermann M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/05 | Daniel Rincon M25 Vic |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 15/05 | Johan Nikles M25 Vic |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/05 | Emilien Demanet M25 Vic |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 13/05 | Noah Lopez M25 Vic |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Florian Broska Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/03 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/02 | Sebastian Ofner Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/01 | Omar Jasika Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/01 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Australian Open · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jack Kennedy vs Yosuke Watanuki?
Our model gives 58% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.