Tennis · Challenger Cary · 03/07, 16:00
Prediction: Edward Winter vs William Manning
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Edward Winter; the market gives 73% to Edward Winter (odds 1.28).
On recent form, Edward Winter is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and William Manning 4-6 over theirs.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Edward Winter 1524 · William Manning 1509
| Edward Winter | William Manning | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- William Manning dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Note: William Manning makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Edward Winter | William Manning | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.1 | 11-10.3 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 27.1% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 28/06 | Ian Mayew Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Oliver Crawford Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Alexander Donski Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 02/06 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/05 | Giles Hussey Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
William Manning
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Braden Shick M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 16/06 | Ezekiel Clark M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 09/06 | Maximus Dussault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Mikael Arseneault ITF M25 Edwardsville · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Oliver Ojakaar ITF M25 Edwardsville · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Jon Gamble ITF M25 Champaign · Hard |
1-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Edward Winter vs William Manning?
Our model gives 64% to Edward Winter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.