Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Daniil Medvedev; the market gives 84% to Daniil Medvedev (odds 1.13).
On recent form, Jan-Lennard Struff is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Daniil Medvedev 5-5 over theirs.
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jan-Lennard Struff 2–8 Daniil Medvedev (10).
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.8 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.9-18.1 | 15-13 |
| Aces | 14.1 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 38.4% |
H2H · Jan-Lennard Struff 2 – 8 Daniil Medvedev (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan-Lennard Struff 2–8 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/25 ATP Dubai | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/02/25 ATP Marseille | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 16-23 | L |
| 04/12/21 Davis Cup | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/06/21 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 15/06/21 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/12/19 Diriyah Tennis Cup | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/08/19 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 26/05 | Alexander Bublik French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 18/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Thijs Boogaard ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/05 | Adam Walton French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 71% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.