Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Rafael Jodar; the market gives 78% to Rafael Jodar (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Rafael Jodar with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Shintaro Mochizuki has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1591 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1570
| Rafael Jodar | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.3-1.3 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 19-14.9 | 15-12.7 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5 · Bet365 line 37.5 · -9
Over 37.5: 6% · 1.83
Under 37.5: 94% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 26-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex Michelsen French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 27/05 | James Duckworth French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Luciano Darderi ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Learner Tien ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/05 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/06 | Sander Jong ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 67% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.