Prediction: Ludmilla Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkova
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Marie Bouzkova; the market gives 57% to Marie Bouzkova (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Ludmilla Samsonova sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Marie Bouzkova arrives on a 8-2 run.
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Bouzkova (rating 1495 vs 1601).
- Marie Bouzkova is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ludmilla Samsonova 3–2 Marie Bouzkova (5).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11.5 | 12.2-8.2 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 57% | 37.7% |
H2H · Ludmilla Samsonova 3 – 2 Marie Bouzkova (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludmilla Samsonova 3–2 Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/25 WTA Adelaide | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 29/08/24 US Open Women | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 20/10/22 WTA Guadalajara | 1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 16/06/19 WTA Birmingham | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/05/19 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Harriet Dart WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Ann Li WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Talia Gibson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Hannah Klugman WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/05 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludmilla Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkova?
Our model gives 60% to Marie Bouzkova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.