Tennis · M15 Umag · 02/07, 15:30
Prediction: Giovanni Oradini vs Paris Pouatcha
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Paris Pouatcha; the market gives 78% to Giovanni Oradini (odds 1.20).
On recent form, Giovanni Oradini is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Paris Pouatcha 8-2 over theirs.
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giovanni Oradini 1535 · Paris Pouatcha 1584
| Giovanni Oradini | Paris Pouatcha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paris Pouatcha (rating 1535 vs 1584).
- Giovanni Oradini dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 40.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Giovanni Oradini | Paris Pouatcha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.2 | 12.3-8.8 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giovanni Oradini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Emanuel Ivanisevic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Marcello Serafini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Tobia Grandinetti M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Luca Potenza M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Paris Pouatcha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Nicolas Jadoun M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Marko Nikolic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/06 | Deni Zmak UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Facundo Yunis UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Valeriy Martishev UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Aleksa Oparnica UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | David Knesl UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Karlo Kajin UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/02 | Tiago Silva UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/02 | Lenn Luemkemann UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giovanni Oradini vs Paris Pouatcha?
Our model gives 62% to Giovanni Oradini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.