Tennis · Challenger Cary · 02/07, 15:00
Prediction: Alex Martinez vs Jay Friend
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Alex Martinez; the market gives 61% to Jay Friend (odds 1.53).
Recent form leaves Alex Martinez with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Jay Friend has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Martinez 1560 · Jay Friend 1540
| Alex Martinez | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 45.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex Martinez | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.6 | 13.8-12.2 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 75% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Martinez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/06 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/05 | Stefan Adrian Andreescu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/05 | Siddhant Banthia Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/04 | Daniel Cukierman Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Niklas Waldner Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/04 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 19/04 | Luca Potenza Challenger Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Justin Boulais Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/06 | Charlie Camus Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/05 | Justin Boulais Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 29/05 | Fajing Sun Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/05 | Henry Searle Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Karl Poling Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/03 | Marcos Giron Challenger Phoenix · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Martinez vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 55% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.