Tennis · Challenger Cary · 02/07, 15:00
Prediction: Blake Ellis vs Ozan Baris
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Ozan Baris; the market gives 59% to Ozan Baris (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Blake Ellis sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Ozan Baris arrives on a 9-1 run.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blake Ellis 1499 · Ozan Baris 1623
| Blake Ellis | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ozan Baris (rating 1499 vs 1623).
- Blake Ellis dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Ozan Baris is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Blake Ellis makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Blake Ellis | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.8 | 13.4-9.9 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Andres Martin Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Tyler Zink Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/04 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/04 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/04 | Li Tu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Mikhail Kukushkin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Ozan Baris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/06 | James Trotter Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Maximus Dussault M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Justin Boulais M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/06 | Zsombor Velcz M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Justin Boulais M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blake Ellis vs Ozan Baris?
Our model gives 63% to Ozan Baris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.