Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Roman Safiullin; the market gives 70% to Joao Fonseca (odds 1.36).
Recent form leaves Roman Safiullin with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Joao Fonseca has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1567 · Joao Fonseca 1557
| Roman Safiullin | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 51.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 70% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.3 | 2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.5-16.9 | 18-16.2 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
30.8 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -9.7
Over 40.5: 4% · 1.83
Under 40.5: 96% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-21 | W |
| 29/06 | Andrey Rublev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 25/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-28 | W |
| 24/06 | Kimmer Coppejans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | James McCabe Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Joao Fonseca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 29/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 28-25 | W |
| 27/05 | Dino Prizmic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 09/05 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/04 | Rafael Jodar ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca?
Our model gives 60% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.