Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 03/07, 12:00
Prediction: Claire Liu vs Coco Gauff
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Claire Liu; the market gives 86% to Coco Gauff (odds 1.10).
Recent form leaves Claire Liu with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Coco Gauff has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Claire Liu 1568 · Coco Gauff 1552
| Claire Liu | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Claire Liu dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 65.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Claire Liu 0–1 Coco Gauff (1).
Statistics
| Claire Liu | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-7.8 | 13.8-10.8 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 65.2% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4
Over 18.5: 76% · 1.80
Under 18.5: 24% · 1.90
H2H · Claire Liu 0 – 1 Coco Gauff (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Claire Liu 0–1 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/24 WTA Auckland | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Claire Liu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Zeynep Sonmez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Hanne Vandewinkel Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Elena Pridankina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Kaitlin Quevedo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Despina Papamichail Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/06 | Ella Seidel WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Maria Sakkari French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Lulu Sun French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 20/05 | Katarzyna Kawa French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/05 | Laura Pigossi French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Mayar Sherif French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Taylor Townsend French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/05 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 11/05 | Iva Jovic WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Claire Liu vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 69% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.