Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Jelena Ostapenko; the market gives 79% to Aryna Sabalenka (odds 1.20).
On recent form, Aryna Sabalenka is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 over theirs.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 3–1 Jelena Ostapenko (4).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (5) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.6 | 12.3-8.3 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 75.4% |
| Break % | 57.9% | 51.3% |
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 3 – 1 Jelena Ostapenko (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 3–1 Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/25 WTA Stuttgart | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/05/24 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/02/23 WTA Dubai | 2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 13/09/19 WTA Zhengzhou | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Daria Kasatkina French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Elsa Jacquemot French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Ella Seidel French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/05 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 65% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.