Tennis · M25 Figueira da Foz · 02/07, 15:00
Prediction: Lui Maxted vs Daniil Ostapenkov
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Daniil Ostapenkov; the market gives 63% to Lui Maxted (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Lui Maxted with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Daniil Ostapenkov has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lui Maxted 1526 · Daniil Ostapenkov 1565
| Lui Maxted | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Lui Maxted makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lui Maxted | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10 | 11-8.2 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 72% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lui Maxted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Nikola Djukic Valera M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/03 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/03 | Michalis Sakellaridis Challenger Hersonissos Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/03 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/03 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/03 | James Story Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/02 | Gauthier Onclin M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Daniil Ostapenkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Rohan Mehra M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tiago Pereira M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Guilherme Valdoleiros M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Robin Catry M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Adam Kaczmarek M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/05 | Vadym Ursu M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/05 | Kevin Edengren M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lui Maxted vs Daniil Ostapenkov?
Our model gives 54% to Lui Maxted, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.