Prediction: Diana Shnaider vs Ludmilla Samsonova
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Diana Shnaider; the market gives 55% to Diana Shnaider (odds 1.73).
On recent form, Diana Shnaider is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Ludmilla Samsonova 7-3 over theirs.
| Diana Shnaider | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diana Shnaider (rating 1531 vs 1476).
- Head-to-head: Diana Shnaider 2–0 Ludmilla Samsonova (2).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Diana Shnaider | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.9 | 10.4-10.6 |
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 62.1% | 55.5% |
H2H · Diana Shnaider 2 – 0 Ludmilla Samsonova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Diana Shnaider 2–0 Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/24 WTA Toronto | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/05/24 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diana Shnaider
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Eva Lys Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Clara Tauson WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/06 | Madison Keys French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 30/05 | Oleksandra Oliynykova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | McCartney Kessler French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/05 | Renata Zarazua French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/05 | Naomi Osaka WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Harriet Dart WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Ann Li WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/04 | Janice Tjen WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diana Shnaider vs Ludmilla Samsonova?
Our model gives 56% to Diana Shnaider, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.