Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 02/07, 14:00
Prediction: Anna Blinkova vs Marta Kostyuk
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Marta Kostyuk; the market gives 85% to Marta Kostyuk (odds 1.11).
Over their last 10 matches, Anna Blinkova sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Marta Kostyuk arrives on a 8-2 run.
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anna Blinkova 1536 · Marta Kostyuk 1616
| Anna Blinkova | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 15% | 85% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1536 vs 1616).
- Marta Kostyuk is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Anna Blinkova 0–1 Marta Kostyuk (1).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Anna Blinkova | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.2 | 12.4-8 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 67.7% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.8
Over 19.5: 69% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 31% · 1.80
H2H · Anna Blinkova 0 – 1 Marta Kostyuk (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Anna Blinkova 0–1 Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anna Blinkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Yulia Starodubtsewa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 21/06 | Solana Sierra WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Julia Avdeeva WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Taylah Preston WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Anna Bondar WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 13/06 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Jodie Anna Burrage WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Viktorija Golubic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Katie Volynets French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/05 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/04 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/04 | Linda Noskova WTA Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anna Blinkova vs Marta Kostyuk?
Our model gives 75% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.