Prediction: Caty McNally vs Elena Rybakina
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Caty McNally; the market gives 81% to Elena Rybakina (odds 1.17).
Recent form leaves Caty McNally with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Elena Rybakina has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Caty McNally | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Caty McNally 0–1 Elena Rybakina (1).
- Note: Caty McNally makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Caty McNally | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.9 | 13.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 44.7% |
H2H · Caty McNally 0 – 1 Elena Rybakina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caty McNally 0–1 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/25 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caty McNally
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Emiliana Arango WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Janice Tjen WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 18/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Solana Sierra WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Belinda Bencic French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Veronika Erjavec French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/05 | Alexandra Eala WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/05 | Maria Sakkari WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caty McNally vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 66% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.