Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Arthur Fils; the market gives 59% to Arthur Fils (odds 1.61).
Recent form leaves Matteo Berrettini with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Arthur Fils has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1576 · Arthur Fils 1598
| Matteo Berrettini | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-15.2 | 13.4-9.3 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 33.2% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -13.5
Over 38.5: 1% · 1.83
Under 38.5: 99% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Arthur Rinderknech French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Marton Fucsovics French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/05 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/04 | Mariano Navone Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Raphael Collignon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/04 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Ignacio Buse ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 19/04 | Andrey Rublev ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/04 | Rafael Jodar ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/04 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/04 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 56% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.