Prediction: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Bublik
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Kyrian Jacquet; the market gives 73% to Alexander Bublik (odds 1.30).
On recent form, Kyrian Jacquet is 9-1 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alexander Bublik 3-7 over theirs.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kyrian Jacquet 1580 · Alexander Bublik 1502
| Kyrian Jacquet | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kyrian Jacquet (rating 1580 vs 1502).
- Kyrian Jacquet dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Kyrian Jacquet | Alexander Bublik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.4-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.2 | 15-15.7 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 14.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.5% | 76% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 35.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.7 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -11.8
Over 38.5: 2% · 1.83
Under 38.5: 98% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kyrian Jacquet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Vilius Gaubas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 22/06 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/06 | Toby Samuel Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Marco Trungelliti French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 22/05 | Felix Gill French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Jan-Lennard Struff French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-26 | L |
| 22/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 21/05 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Bublik?
Our model gives 58% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.