Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 02/10, 20:30

Prediction: Caserio Ciudad Real vs Ademar Leon

Team pages: Caserio Ciudad Real · Ademar Leon

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.2Total

Caserio Ciudad Real33

Ademar Leon32.2

1X2

64% 36%

Caserio Ciudad Real Ademar Leon

Markets

Over 61.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Caserio Ciudad Real 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDLDW

Ademar Leon 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Caserio Ciudad Real 0–2 Ademar Leon (2 last)

Caserio Ciudad Real27-33Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon38-31Caserio Ciudad Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caserio Ciudad Real 1491 · Ademar Leon 1448

	Caserio Ciudad Real	Ademar Leon
Our model	66%	34%
Market	56%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 65.2 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +3.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.2Caserio Ciudad Real 33 · Ademar Leon 32.2

Over / Under 61.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~64.5 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours Ademar Leon: 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Caserio Ciudad Real	Ademar Leon
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 30.8	32.5 / 35.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 31.4	32.6 / 33.8
Est. result	33	32

Est. total65.2

Line O/U61.5

Diff.3.7

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.67

X8.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.78

Under 61.52.00

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 64.5

Market movement

Match winner · 9 moves · last 19:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	8.00 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50
2	1.90 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (9)

Bet365 margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +12’	2.35	8.00	1.90
22:47 +11’	1.80▼	8.50▲	2.60▲
10:49 +12’	1.65▼	8.50	2.90▲
13:52 +10’	1.72▲	8.50	2.80▼
15:11 +1’	1.65▼	8.50	2.90▲
16:11 +1’	1.67▲	8.50	2.90
17:11 +5’	1.72▲	8.50	2.80▼
18:22	1.65▼	8.50	2.90▲
19:11 +22’	1.67▲	8.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 61.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caserio Ciudad Real 0–0–2 Ademar Leon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Caserio Ciudad Real	27-33	Ademar Leon
04/10/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	38-31	Caserio Ciudad Real

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bidasoa Irun	3	3	0	0	107	89	6
2	BM Granollers	3	3	0	0	106	89	6
3	Atletico Valladolid	3	3	0	0	99	82	6
4	FC Barcelona	2	2	0	0	87	59	4
5	BM Torrelavega	3	2	0	1	97	79	4
6	BM Logrono La Rioja	3	2	0	1	103	108	4
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	2	1	1	0	65	59	3
8	Ciudad Encantada	3	1	0	2	97	97	2
9	Ademar Leon	3	1	0	2	103	106	2
10	BM Triana	3	1	0	2	94	100	2
11	Puerto Sagunto	3	1	0	2	93	102	2
12	CMB Sporting Alicante	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
13	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	3	1	0	2	86	104	2
14	Villa De Aranda	3	0	1	2	88	103	1
15	BM Cangas	3	0	0	3	98	104	0
16	BM Nava	3	0	0	3	77	106	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caserio Ciudad Real	Ademar Leon
CMB Sporting Alicante	35-29 W	32-35 L
Villa De Aranda	30-30 D	33-35 L
BM Cangas	28-28 D	33-32 W
Atletico Valladolid	33-30 W	27-28 L
BM Logrono La Rioja	28-33 L	32-32 D
BM Torrelavega	28-35 L	33-40 L
BM Guadalajara	34-27 W	34-31 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caserio Ciudad Real (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caserio Ciudad Real

WLLWWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	35-29	W
13/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
31/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	29-38	L
22/05	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	28-28	D
09/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
03/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-30	W
24/04	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-26	W
18/04	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	28-33	L
11/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	28-35	L
04/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	34-27	W

Ademar Leon

LWLDLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	33-32	W
20/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
13/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	38-39	L
30/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	33-35	L
23/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
08/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
02/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	32-32	D
26/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	33-40	L
17/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	34-31	W
10/04	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	31-48	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caserio Ciudad Real vs Ademar Leon?

Our model gives 64% to Caserio Ciudad Real.

How many points are expected in Caserio Ciudad Real vs Ademar Leon?

The model estimates 65.2 total points (Caserio Ciudad Real 33 · Ademar Leon 32.2).

Over or under 61.5 points?

Recent history points to over 61.5 points (65%).