Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Ademar Leon vs BM Nava

Team pages: Ademar Leon · BM Nava

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.5Total

Ademar Leon33

BM Nava32.5

1X2

75% 25%

Ademar Leon BM Nava

Markets

Over 62.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Ademar Leon 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLLWL

BM Nava 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Ademar Leon 3–3 BM Nava (6 last)

BM Nava38-31Ademar Leon
BM Nava28-31Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon32-29BM Nava
BM Nava32-27Ademar Leon
Ademar Leon34-27BM Nava
BM Nava31-30Ademar Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ademar Leon 1449 · BM Nava 1447

	Ademar Leon	BM Nava
Our model	60%	40%
Market	78%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 65.5 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.5Ademar Leon 33 · BM Nava 32.5

Over / Under 62.5Over · 70%recent trend · ~64.9 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Ademar Leon is a clear favourite (75% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ademar Leon	BM Nava
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.7 / 34.2	31.3 / 32.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.8 / 35.2	30.4 / 33.8
Est. result	33	33

Est. total65.5

Line O/U62.5

Diff.3

Over / Under70% / 30%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X12.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.88

Under 62.51.88

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 65.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	11.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
2	5.50 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +1’	1.27	11.00	5.50
17:54 +56’	1.22▼	12.00▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ademar Leon 3–0–3 BM Nava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Spain Copa del Rey	BM Nava	38-31	Ademar Leon
29/03/26 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	28-31	Ademar Leon
11/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	32-29	BM Nava
13/04/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	32-27	Ademar Leon
16/11/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Ademar Leon	34-27	BM Nava
18/02/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	31-30	Ademar Leon

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bidasoa Irun	4	4	0	0	138	114	8
2	Atletico Valladolid	4	4	0	0	139	118	8
3	FC Barcelona	3	3	0	0	133	90	6
4	BM Torrelavega	4	3	0	1	125	100	6
5	BM Granollers	3	3	0	0	106	89	6
6	BM Logrono La Rioja	4	3	0	1	139	140	6
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	3	2	1	0	100	92	5
8	BM Triana	4	2	0	2	129	134	4
9	Ciudad Encantada	3	1	0	2	97	97	2
10	Ademar Leon	4	1	0	3	136	141	2
11	Puerto Sagunto	4	1	0	3	125	138	2
12	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	4	1	0	3	111	135	2
13	CMB Sporting Alicante	4	1	0	3	123	151	2
14	Villa De Aranda	4	0	1	3	109	131	1
15	BM Cangas	4	0	0	4	134	144	0
16	BM Nava	4	0	0	4	111	141	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ademar Leon	BM Nava
Atletico Valladolid	27-28 L	35-36 L
CMB Sporting Alicante	32-35 L	34-32 W
BM Logrono La Rioja	32-32 D	33-38 L
BM Torrelavega	33-40 L	19-33 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ademar Leon (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ademar Leon

WLDLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	33-35	L
25/09	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	33-32	W
20/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
13/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	38-39	L
30/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	33-35	L
23/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
08/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	32-35	L
02/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	32-32	D
26/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	33-40	L
17/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	34-31	W

BM Nava

LLWLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	BM Triana Spain Liga Asobal	34-35	L
26/09	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	33-38	L
19/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	19-33	L
12/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	25-35	L
13/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	41-28	W
10/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-25	W
31/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	35-36	L
22/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-32	W
09/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	25-28	L
02/05	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	33-38	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ademar Leon vs BM Nava?

Our model gives 75% to Ademar Leon.

How many points are expected in Ademar Leon vs BM Nava?

The model estimates 65.5 total points (Ademar Leon 33 · BM Nava 32.5).

Over or under 62.5 points?

Recent history points to over 62.5 points (70%).