Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: BM Cangas vs Atletico Valladolid

Team pages: BM Cangas · Atletico Valladolid

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.2Total

BM Cangas28.4

Atletico Valladolid29.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

45% 55%

BM Cangas Atletico Valladolid

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 56.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

BM Cangas 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWLLL

Atletico Valladolid 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

BM Cangas 2–2–2 Atletico Valladolid (6 last)

Atletico Valladolid29-23BM Cangas
BM Cangas29-30Atletico Valladolid
BM Cangas30-26Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid34-34BM Cangas
BM Cangas30-29Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid38-38BM Cangas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Cangas 1450 · Atletico Valladolid 1541

	BM Cangas	Atletico Valladolid
Our model	47%	53%
Market	38%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 58.2 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +1.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.2BM Cangas 28.4 · Atletico Valladolid 29.8

Over / Under 56.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~60.4 pts · strength 4

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Cangas	Atletico Valladolid
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.7 / 30	30.3 / 28.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.6 / 32.4	32.6 / 28.8
Est. result	28	30

Est. total58.2

Line O/U56.5

Diff.1.7

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.45

X8.00

21.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.88

Under 56.51.88

Diff.: 2.3 · Est. total: 58.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.88 → 1.88	Bet365 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:43 +19’	2.45	8.00	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Cangas 2–2–2 Atletico Valladolid

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	29-23	BM Cangas
15/11/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Cangas	29-30	Atletico Valladolid
08/02/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Cangas	30-26	Atletico Valladolid
13/09/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	34-34	BM Cangas
25/05/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Cangas	30-29	Atletico Valladolid
13/12/23 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	38-38	BM Cangas

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bidasoa Irun	3	3	0	0	107	89	6
2	BM Granollers	3	3	0	0	106	89	6
3	Atletico Valladolid	3	3	0	0	99	82	6
4	FC Barcelona	2	2	0	0	87	59	4
5	BM Torrelavega	3	2	0	1	97	79	4
6	BM Logrono La Rioja	3	2	0	1	103	108	4
7	Caserio Ciudad Real	2	1	1	0	65	59	3
8	Ciudad Encantada	3	1	0	2	97	97	2
9	Ademar Leon	3	1	0	2	103	106	2
10	BM Triana	3	1	0	2	94	100	2
11	Puerto Sagunto	3	1	0	2	93	102	2
12	CMB Sporting Alicante	3	1	0	2	92	105	2
13	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	3	1	0	2	86	104	2
14	Villa De Aranda	3	0	1	2	88	103	1
15	BM Cangas	3	0	0	3	98	104	0
16	BM Nava	3	0	0	3	77	106	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Cangas	Atletico Valladolid
Ademar Leon	32-33 L	28-27 W
Bidasoa Irun	32-33 L	33-36 L
BM Granollers	34-38 L	23-27 L
Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	32-30 W	25-23 W
Caserio Ciudad Real	28-28 D	30-33 L
Ciudad Encantada	28-24 W	28-26 W
Villa De Aranda	28-26 W	34-26 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BM Cangas (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Cangas

LWWLLDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/09	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	32-33	L
19/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	32-33	L
11/09	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	34-38	L
31/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	32-30	W
22/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	28-28	D
10/05	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	25-26	L
01/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	25-33	L
25/04	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-24	W
19/04	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
11/04	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	23-29	L

Atletico Valladolid

WLLLWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Puerto Sagunto Spain Liga Asobal	37-30	W
19/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	34-26	W
12/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
31/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-35	W
23/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	28-27	W
10/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	25-23	W
03/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-33	L
26/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	33-36	L
19/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	23-27	L
11/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	29-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Cangas vs Atletico Valladolid?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (BM Cangas 45% · Atletico Valladolid 55%).

How many points are expected in BM Cangas vs Atletico Valladolid?

The model estimates 58.2 total points (BM Cangas 28.4 · Atletico Valladolid 29.8).

Over or under 56.5 points?

Recent history points to over 56.5 points (65%).