Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 26/09, 22:00

Prediction: AC Lamego vs Padroense

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.9Total

AC Lamego28.7

Padroense28.2

1X2

75% 25%

AC Lamego Padroense

Recent form · 10 last

AC Lamego 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWLWL

Padroense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWWWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Lamego 1510 · Padroense 1505

	AC Lamego	Padroense
Our model	61%	39%
Market	78%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 56.9 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.9AC Lamego 28.7 · Padroense 28.2

Match keys

AC Lamego is a clear favourite (75% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	AC Lamego	Padroense
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.2 / 26.6	31.1 / 28.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28 / 28.8	32.6 / 26.8
Est. result	29	28

Est. total56.9

Line O/U56.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.15

X11.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.85

2 (+5.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · Est. total: 56.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.15 → 1.15	Bet365 1.15
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +41’	1.15	11.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Lamego

LLWWWLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	CDC Sao Paio Oleiros Portugal 2a Divisao	28-29	L
06/06	AD Albicastrense Portugal 2a Divisao	32-30	W
04/06	AC Coimbra Portugal 2a Divisao	23-33	L
23/05	AC Sismaria Portugal 2a Divisao	30-20	W
16/05	FC Gaia B Portugal 2a Divisao	27-32	L
08/05	Alavarium AC Portugal 2a Divisao	26-25	W
01/05	ADC Benavente Portugal 2a Divisao	28-25	W
28/02	ADC Benavente Portugal 2a Divisao	33-19	W
21/02	Estarreja AC Portugal 2a Divisao	24-25	L
07/02	CDC Sao Paio Oleiros Portugal 2a Divisao	21-28	L

Padroense

LDWDLWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	33-25	W
10/06	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	30-33	L
06/06	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	45-24	W
04/06	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	23-21	W
30/05	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	32-31	W
09/05	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	29-37	L
03/05	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	30-30	D
01/05	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	29-26	W
18/04	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	31-31	D
11/04	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	29-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Lamego vs Padroense?

Our model gives 75% to AC Lamego.

How many points are expected in AC Lamego vs Padroense?

The model estimates 56.9 total points (AC Lamego 28.7 · Padroense 28.2).