Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 05/10, 18:00
Prediction: Aguas Santas B vs Padroense
Team pages: Aguas Santas B · Padroense
Prediction summary
Estimated points
61.4Total
Aguas Santas B31.3
Padroense30.1
1X2
Aguas Santas B
Padroense
Markets
Over 53.5 points 90%
Recent form · 10 last
Aguas Santas B
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Padroense
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aguas Santas B
2–1
Padroense
(3 last)
- Padroense29-37Aguas Santas B
- Aguas Santas B31-27Padroense
- Aguas Santas B27-29Padroense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aguas Santas B 1568 · Padroense 1495
| Aguas Santas B | Padroense | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 66% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
61.4 points · Bet365 line 53.5 · +7.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points61.4Aguas Santas B 31.3 · Padroense 30.1
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguas Santas B (rating 1568 vs 1495).
- Aguas Santas B is a clear favourite (72% market).
- H2H favours Aguas Santas B: 2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Aguas Santas B | Padroense | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 33.3 / 29.8 | 30.6 / 28.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 31.4 / 30 | 32.6 / 28 |
| Est. result | 31 | 30 |
Est. total61.4
Line O/U53.5
Diff.7.9
Over / Under90% / 10%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguas Santas B 2–0–1 Padroense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Portugal 2a Divisao | Padroense | 29-37 | Aguas Santas B |
| 27/03/26 Portugal 2a Divisao | Aguas Santas B | 31-27 | Padroense |
| 21/09/25 Portugal 2a Divisao | Aguas Santas B | 27-29 | Padroense |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aguas Santas B | Padroense |
|---|---|---|
| Academico FC | 30-25 W | 33-25 W |
| CDC Santana | 30-29 W | 23-24 L |
| AC Vermoim | 26-35 L | 23-21 W |
| AD Afifense | 39-36 W | 45-24 W |
| Gondomar Cultural | 34-33 W | 32-31 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Padroense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aguas Santas B
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao |
30-25 | W |
| 13/06 | CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao |
30-29 | W |
| 10/06 | AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao |
26-35 | L |
| 06/06 | CD Marienses Portugal 2a Divisao |
37-27 | W |
| 04/06 | Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao |
34-34 | D |
| 30/05 | AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao |
39-36 | W |
| 23/05 | Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao |
34-33 | W |
| 09/05 | Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao |
37-29 | W |
| 01/05 | AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao |
32-28 | W |
| 17/04 | Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao |
34-22 | W |
Padroense
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao |
23-24 | L |
| 26/09 | AC Lamego Portugal 2a Divisao |
32-34 | L |
| 13/06 | Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao |
33-25 | W |
| 10/06 | CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao |
30-33 | L |
| 06/06 | AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao |
45-24 | W |
| 04/06 | AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao |
23-21 | W |
| 30/05 | Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao |
32-31 | W |
| 09/05 | Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao |
29-37 | L |
| 03/05 | Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao |
30-30 | D |
| 01/05 | CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao |
29-26 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aguas Santas B vs Padroense?
Our model gives 72% to Aguas Santas B.
How many points are expected in Aguas Santas B vs Padroense?
The model estimates 61.4 total points (Aguas Santas B 31.3 · Padroense 30.1).