Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 26/09, 19:30

Prediction: Alto Moinho vs CD Marienses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.7Total

Alto Moinho28.5

CD Marienses28.2

1X2

72% 28%

Alto Moinho CD Marienses

Recent form · 10 last

Alto Moinho 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDDLLD

CD Marienses 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Alto Moinho 1–0 CD Marienses (1 last)

Alto Moinho27-21CD Marienses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alto Moinho 1497 · CD Marienses 1504

	Alto Moinho	CD Marienses
Our model	59%	41%
Market	73%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 56.7 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.7Alto Moinho 28.5 · CD Marienses 28.2

Match keys

Alto Moinho is a clear favourite (72% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Alto Moinho	CD Marienses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.5 / 29.5	27.3 / 28.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 30	29 / 30.2
Est. result	29	28

Est. total56.7

Line O/U56.5

Diff.0.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · Est. total: 56.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +34’	1.22	10.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alto Moinho 1–0–0 CD Marienses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/09/23 Portugal 2a Divisao	Alto Moinho	27-21	CD Marienses

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alto Moinho

DWLWWDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	32-32	D
10/06	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	26-32	L
06/06	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
03/06	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
30/05	Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
22/05	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	28-27	W
09/05	UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao	26-23	W
06/05	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	28-40	L
03/05	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	34-27	W
25/04	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D

CD Marienses

LLWWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/06	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	23-27	L
06/06	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	27-37	L
01/05	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	32-35	L
18/04	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	29-27	W
03/04	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	34-25	W
28/03	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	24-25	L
28/02	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	29-24	W
10/01	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
08/11	AA Sao Mamede Portugal 2a Divisao	22-28	L
11/10	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	26-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alto Moinho vs CD Marienses?

Our model gives 72% to Alto Moinho.

How many points are expected in Alto Moinho vs CD Marienses?

The model estimates 56.7 total points (Alto Moinho 28.5 · CD Marienses 28.2).