Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 26/09, 19:00

Prediction: Estrela Amadora vs GM 1 Dezembro

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.1Total

Estrela Amadora28.2

GM 1 Dezembro27.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

20% 80%

Estrela Amadora GM 1 Dezembro

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 53.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela Amadora 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLWL

GM 1 Dezembro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Estrela Amadora 3–1 GM 1 Dezembro (4 last)

GM 1 Dezembro28-25Estrela Amadora
Estrela Amadora35-27GM 1 Dezembro
Estrela Amadora25-19GM 1 Dezembro
Estrela Amadora25-24GM 1 Dezembro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela Amadora 1451 · GM 1 Dezembro 1530

	Estrela Amadora	GM 1 Dezembro
Our model	49%	51%
Market	1%	97%

Estimated total (ours) 56.1 points · Bet365 line 53.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.1Estrela Amadora 28.2 · GM 1 Dezembro 27.9

Over / Under 53.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~56.7 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours Estrela Amadora: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Estrela Amadora	GM 1 Dezembro
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.3 / 28.1	29.3 / 28.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.6 / 28.4	29.6 / 29.8
Est. result	28	28

Est. total56.1

Line O/U53.5

Diff.2.6

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

167.00

X67.00

21.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+14.5)1.85

2 (-14.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 53.51.85

Under 53.51.85

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 56.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	67.00 → 67.00	Bet365 67.00
X	67.00 → 67.00	Bet365 67.00
2	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 2.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:45 +45’	67.00	67.00	1.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela Amadora 3–0–1 GM 1 Dezembro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/12/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	GM 1 Dezembro	28-25	Estrela Amadora
27/09/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	35-27	GM 1 Dezembro
14/12/24 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	25-19	GM 1 Dezembro
13/05/23 Portugal 2a Divisao	Estrela Amadora	25-24	GM 1 Dezembro

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela Amadora

WDLLLLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	Estarreja AC Portugal 2a Divisao	26-30	L
06/06	Juve Lis Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
04/06	AA Sao Mamede Portugal 2a Divisao	25-27	L
30/05	SL Benfica B Portugal 2a Divisao	28-29	L
09/05	AC Fafe Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
02/05	Estarreja AC Portugal 2a Divisao	27-28	L
11/04	SL Benfica B Portugal 2a Divisao	26-32	L
03/04	AA Sao Mamede Portugal 2a Divisao	22-25	L
28/03	AC Fafe Portugal 2a Divisao	23-23	D
31/01	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	32-31	W

GM 1 Dezembro

DDWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/06	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	35-27	W
06/06	Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao	30-27	W
30/05	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	32-38	L
27/05	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	24-31	L
23/05	UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
09/05	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	37-32	W
03/05	Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao	31-29	W
30/04	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
25/04	Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
18/04	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	22-22	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela Amadora vs GM 1 Dezembro?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Estrela Amadora 20% · GM 1 Dezembro 80%).

How many points are expected in Estrela Amadora vs GM 1 Dezembro?

The model estimates 56.1 total points (Estrela Amadora 28.2 · GM 1 Dezembro 27.9).

Over or under 53.5 points?

Recent history points to over 53.5 points (65%).