Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: Villa De Aranda vs Bidasoa Irun

Team pages: Villa De Aranda · Bidasoa Irun

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.7Total

Villa De Aranda30.5

Bidasoa Irun31.1

1X2

32% 68%

Villa De Aranda Bidasoa Irun

Recent form · 10 last

Villa De Aranda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWDL

Bidasoa Irun 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Villa De Aranda 0–1–5 Bidasoa Irun (6 last)

Bidasoa Irun32-26Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda32-36Bidasoa Irun
Bidasoa Irun34-27Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda26-26Bidasoa Irun
Villa De Aranda27-31Bidasoa Irun
Bidasoa Irun30-25Villa De Aranda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa De Aranda 1503 · Bidasoa Irun 1558

	Villa De Aranda	Bidasoa Irun
Our model	52%	48%
Market	17%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 61.7 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.7Villa De Aranda 30.5 · Bidasoa Irun 31.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bidasoa Irun (rating 1503 vs 1558).
Bidasoa Irun is a clear favourite (68% market).
H2H favours Bidasoa Irun: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Villa De Aranda	Bidasoa Irun
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.1 / 29	33.5 / 30.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30 / 30.2	32.2 / 28.8
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.7

Line O/U59.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

15.50

X11.00

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.75

2 (-4.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 2 · Est. total: 61.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50
X	12.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00
2	1.22 → 1.27▲	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:44 +4’	6.50	12.00	1.22
19:23 +33’	5.50▼	11.00▼	1.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa De Aranda 0–1–5 Bidasoa Irun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Bidasoa Irun	32-26	Villa De Aranda
06/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	32-36	Bidasoa Irun
19/03/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Bidasoa Irun	34-27	Villa De Aranda
15/09/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	26-26	Bidasoa Irun
09/05/21 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	27-31	Bidasoa Irun
22/11/20 Spain Liga Asobal	Bidasoa Irun	30-25	Villa De Aranda

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	2	2	0	0	87	59	4
2	Bidasoa Irun	2	2	0	0	68	57	4
3	Atletico Valladolid	2	2	0	0	62	52	4
4	BM Granollers	2	2	0	0	65	58	4
5	Caserio Ciudad Real	2	1	1	0	65	59	3
6	BM Torrelavega	2	1	0	1	62	51	2
7	Ciudad Encantada	2	1	0	1	61	60	2
8	Puerto Sagunto	2	1	0	1	63	65	2
9	CMB Sporting Alicante	2	1	0	1	61	64	2
10	BM Logrono La Rioja	2	1	0	1	65	75	2
11	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	2	1	0	1	58	69	2
12	Villa De Aranda	2	0	1	1	56	64	1
13	Ademar Leon	2	0	0	2	70	74	0
14	BM Cangas	2	0	0	2	66	71	0
15	BM Triana	2	0	0	2	57	64	0
16	BM Nava	2	0	0	2	44	68	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa De Aranda	Bidasoa Irun
Atletico Valladolid	26-34 L	36-33 W
BM Granollers	33-27 W	31-32 L
BM Cangas	26-28 L	33-32 W
Ciudad Encantada	33-23 W	36-30 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa De Aranda

WWLWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	26-34	L
13/09	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
30/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
22/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
09/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	32-26	W
02/05	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
25/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	33-27	W
19/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	26-28	L
12/04	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	33-23	W
05/04	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-29	W

Bidasoa Irun

DWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	33-32	W
12/09	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	35-25	W
31/05	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	36-30	W
22/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	31-32	L
10/05	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	26-25	W
02/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	32-26	W
26/04	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	36-33	W
18/04	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	38-35	W
11/04	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	34-32	W
04/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	34-34	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa De Aranda vs Bidasoa Irun?

Our model gives 68% to Bidasoa Irun.

How many points are expected in Villa De Aranda vs Bidasoa Irun?

The model estimates 61.7 total points (Villa De Aranda 30.5 · Bidasoa Irun 31.1).