Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 25/09, 17:00

Prediction: BM Nava vs BM Logrono La Rioja

Team pages: BM Nava · BM Logrono La Rioja

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.4Total

BM Nava30.4

BM Logrono La Rioja29.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

40% 60%

BM Nava BM Logrono La Rioja

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

BM Nava 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWWLL

BM Logrono La Rioja 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWLLW

Head-to-head

BM Nava 2–1–3 BM Logrono La Rioja (6 last)

BM Logrono La Rioja28-25BM Nava
BM Nava21-17BM Logrono La Rioja
BM Nava32-32BM Logrono La Rioja
BM Logrono La Rioja30-31BM Nava
BM Nava26-27BM Logrono La Rioja
BM Logrono La Rioja39-35BM Nava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Nava 1490 · BM Logrono La Rioja 1496

	BM Nava	BM Logrono La Rioja
Our model	59%	41%
Market	25%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 60.4 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.4BM Nava 30.4 · BM Logrono La Rioja 29.9

Match keys

H2H favours BM Logrono La Rioja: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Nava	BM Logrono La Rioja
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.3 / 32.3	30.4 / 30.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.8 / 31.4	30.4 / 33.2
Est. result	30	30

Est. total60.4

Line O/U59.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.80

X9.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.88

2 (-2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.88

Under 59.51.88

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 61.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:45 +3’	3.80	9.00	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Nava 2–1–3 BM Logrono La Rioja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	28-25	BM Nava
14/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	21-17	BM Logrono La Rioja
22/02/25 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	32-32	BM Logrono La Rioja
28/09/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	30-31	BM Nava
21/04/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Nava	26-27	BM Logrono La Rioja
19/11/23 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	39-35	BM Nava

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	2	2	0	0	87	59	4
2	Bidasoa Irun	2	2	0	0	68	57	4
3	Atletico Valladolid	2	2	0	0	62	52	4
4	BM Granollers	2	2	0	0	65	58	4
5	Caserio Ciudad Real	2	1	1	0	65	59	3
6	BM Torrelavega	2	1	0	1	62	51	2
7	Ciudad Encantada	2	1	0	1	61	60	2
8	Puerto Sagunto	2	1	0	1	63	65	2
9	CMB Sporting Alicante	2	1	0	1	61	64	2
10	BM Logrono La Rioja	2	1	0	1	65	75	2
11	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	2	1	0	1	58	69	2
12	Villa De Aranda	2	0	1	1	56	64	1
13	Ademar Leon	2	0	0	2	70	74	0
14	BM Cangas	2	0	0	2	66	71	0
15	BM Triana	2	0	0	2	57	64	0
16	BM Nava	2	0	0	2	44	68	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Nava	BM Logrono La Rioja
Bidasoa Irun	25-35 L	32-34 L
FC Barcelona	24-42 L	32-48 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: BM Logrono La Rioja (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Nava

LWLLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	19-33	L
12/09	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	25-35	L
13/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	41-28	W
10/06	Agustinos Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-25	W
31/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	35-36	L
22/05	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	34-32	W
09/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	25-28	L
02/05	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	33-38	L
26/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	33-26	W
17/04	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	24-42	L

BM Logrono La Rioja

DLWWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/09	BM Triana Spain Liga Asobal	33-27	W
11/09	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	32-48	L
31/05	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	28-41	L
22/05	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	31-25	W
09/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	28-25	W
02/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	32-32	D
26/04	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	31-24	W
18/04	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	33-28	W
11/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	32-34	L
03/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	24-24	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Nava vs BM Logrono La Rioja?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (BM Nava 40% · BM Logrono La Rioja 60%).

How many points are expected in BM Nava vs BM Logrono La Rioja?

The model estimates 60.4 total points (BM Nava 30.4 · BM Logrono La Rioja 29.9).