Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 11/09, 19:00

Prediction: BM Logrono La Rioja vs FC Barcelona

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.9Total

BM Logrono La Rioja28.2

FC Barcelona35.6

1X2

16% 84%

BM Logrono La Rioja FC Barcelona

Recent form · 10 last

BM Logrono La Rioja 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Barcelona 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

BM Logrono La Rioja 0–1–5 FC Barcelona (6 last)

BM Logrono La Rioja28-41FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona43-30BM Logrono La Rioja
FC Barcelona37-37BM Logrono La Rioja
BM Logrono La Rioja28-38FC Barcelona
BM Logrono La Rioja24-30FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona31-28BM Logrono La Rioja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Logrono La Rioja 1509 · FC Barcelona 1702

	BM Logrono La Rioja	FC Barcelona
Our model	33%	67%
Market	4%	93%

Estimated total (ours) 63.9 points · Bet365 line 66.5 · -2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.9BM Logrono La Rioja 28.2 · FC Barcelona 35.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Barcelona (rating 1509 vs 1702).
FC Barcelona is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours FC Barcelona: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Logrono La Rioja	FC Barcelona
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 28.5	41.9 / 25.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30 / 29.4	39.8 / 25
Est. result	28	36

Est. total63.9

Line O/U66.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

122.00

X30.00

21.01

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+10.5)1.88

2 (-10.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 66.51.88

Under 66.51.88

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 63.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	22.00 → 22.00	Bet365 22.00
X	30.00 → 30.00	Bet365 30.00
2	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +30’	22.00	30.00	1.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Logrono La Rioja 0–1–5 FC Barcelona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	28-41	FC Barcelona
20/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	FC Barcelona	43-30	BM Logrono La Rioja
03/05/25 Spain Liga Asobal	FC Barcelona	37-37	BM Logrono La Rioja
07/12/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	28-38	FC Barcelona
03/03/24 Spain Liga Asobal	BM Logrono La Rioja	24-30	FC Barcelona
17/12/23 Spain Copa Asobal	FC Barcelona	31-28	BM Logrono La Rioja

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ademar Leon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bidasoa Irun	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Valladolid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caserio Ciudad Real	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ciudad Encantada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Granollers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Logrono La Rioja	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Nava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Torrelavega	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villa De Aranda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Cangas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puerto Sagunto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CMB Sporting Alicante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Logrono La Rioja	FC Barcelona
BM Huesca	31-25 W	42-25 W
BM Nava	28-25 W	42-24 W
Ademar Leon	32-32 D	48-31 W
Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	31-24 W	38-23 W
Caserio Ciudad Real	33-28 W	43-26 W
Bidasoa Irun	32-34 L	39-27 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Barcelona (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Logrono La Rioja

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/05	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	28-41	L
22/05	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	31-25	W
09/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	28-25	W
02/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	32-32	D
26/04	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	31-24	W
18/04	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	33-28	W
11/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	32-34	L
03/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	24-24	D
28/03	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	33-26	W
15/03	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	35-26	W

FC Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/05	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	41-28	W
22/05	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	36-24	W
09/05	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	38-24	W
25/04	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	42-25	W
17/04	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	42-24	W
15/04	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	52-23	W
10/04	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	48-31	W
04/04	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	38-23	W
28/03	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	43-26	W
14/03	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	39-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Logrono La Rioja vs FC Barcelona?

Our model gives 84% to FC Barcelona.

How many points are expected in BM Logrono La Rioja vs FC Barcelona?

The model estimates 63.9 total points (BM Logrono La Rioja 28.2 · FC Barcelona 35.6).