Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Atletico Valladolid vs Villa De Aranda

Team pages: Atletico Valladolid · Villa De Aranda

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59Total

Atletico Valladolid29.8

Villa De Aranda29.2

1X2

75% 25%

Atletico Valladolid Villa De Aranda

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Valladolid 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWWW

Villa De Aranda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Valladolid 3–3 Villa De Aranda (6 last)

Villa De Aranda33-29Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid36-30Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda31-30Atletico Valladolid
Atletico Valladolid37-26Villa De Aranda
Atletico Valladolid29-26Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda33-32Atletico Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Valladolid 1523 · Villa De Aranda 1511

	Atletico Valladolid	Villa De Aranda
Our model	62%	38%
Market	78%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 59 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59Atletico Valladolid 29.8 · Villa De Aranda 29.2

Match keys

Atletico Valladolid is a clear favourite (75% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Atletico Valladolid	Villa De Aranda
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.4 / 28.8	30.6 / 28.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.4 / 28.8	30 / 29.8
Est. result	30	29

Est. total59

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X12.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.88

2 (+4.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.88

Under 60.51.88

Diff.: 1.65 · Est. total: 58.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:27 +20’	1.22	12.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Valladolid 3–0–3 Villa De Aranda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	33-29	Atletico Valladolid
09/11/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	36-30	Villa De Aranda
20/04/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	31-30	Atletico Valladolid
24/11/24 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	37-26	Villa De Aranda
05/05/21 Spain Liga Asobal	Atletico Valladolid	29-26	Villa De Aranda
14/11/20 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	33-32	Atletico Valladolid

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	1	1	0	0	48	32	2
2	Bidasoa Irun	1	1	0	0	35	25	2
3	BM Granollers	1	1	0	0	38	34	2
4	CMB Sporting Alicante	1	1	0	0	32	29	2
5	Atletico Valladolid	1	1	0	0	28	26	2
6	Puerto Sagunto	1	1	0	0	39	38	2
7	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	1	1	0	0	31	30	2
8	Caserio Ciudad Real	1	0	1	0	30	30	1
8	Villa De Aranda	1	0	1	0	30	30	1
10	Ademar Leon	1	0	0	1	38	39	0
11	BM Triana	1	0	0	1	30	31	0
12	Ciudad Encantada	1	0	0	1	26	28	0
13	BM Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	29	32	0
14	BM Cangas	1	0	0	1	34	38	0
15	BM Nava	1	0	0	1	25	35	0
16	BM Logrono La Rioja	1	0	0	1	32	48	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Valladolid	Villa De Aranda
Ciudad Encantada	28-26 W	33-23 W
Ademar Leon	28-27 W	35-33 W
Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	25-23 W	27-28 L
Caserio Ciudad Real	30-33 L	30-30 D
Bidasoa Irun	33-36 L	26-32 L
BM Granollers	23-27 L	33-27 W
BM Cangas	29-23 W	26-28 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Villa De Aranda (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Valladolid

WLWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	28-26	W
31/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	36-35	W
23/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	28-27	W
10/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	25-23	W
03/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-33	L
26/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	33-36	L
19/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	23-27	L
11/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	29-23	W
05/04	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	29-33	L
28/03	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	33-25	W

Villa De Aranda

LWWLWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
30/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
22/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
09/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	32-26	W
02/05	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
25/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	33-27	W
19/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	26-28	L
12/04	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	33-23	W
05/04	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-29	W
28/03	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Valladolid vs Villa De Aranda?

Our model gives 75% to Atletico Valladolid.

How many points are expected in Atletico Valladolid vs Villa De Aranda?

The model estimates 59 total points (Atletico Valladolid 29.8 · Villa De Aranda 29.2).