Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Caserio Ciudad Real vs CMB Sporting Alicante

Team pages: Caserio Ciudad Real · CMB Sporting Alicante

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.3Total

Caserio Ciudad Real30.6

CMB Sporting Alicante30.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

Caserio Ciudad Real CMB Sporting Alicante

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 58.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Caserio Ciudad Real 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDLD

CMB Sporting Alicante 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWLWW

Head-to-head

Caserio Ciudad Real 5–1 CMB Sporting Alicante (6 last)

CMB Sporting Alicante26-31Caserio Ciudad Real
Caserio Ciudad Real33-23CMB Sporting Alicante
CMB Sporting Alicante30-29Caserio Ciudad Real
Caserio Ciudad Real34-31CMB Sporting Alicante
Caserio Ciudad Real37-29CMB Sporting Alicante
CMB Sporting Alicante26-29Caserio Ciudad Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caserio Ciudad Real 1498 · CMB Sporting Alicante 1508

	Caserio Ciudad Real	CMB Sporting Alicante
Our model	59%	41%
Market	50%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 61.3 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +2.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.3Caserio Ciudad Real 30.6 · CMB Sporting Alicante 30.7

Over / Under 58.5Over · 70%recent trend · ~61.6 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours Caserio Ciudad Real: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Caserio Ciudad Real	CMB Sporting Alicante
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.3 / 32.2	30.8 / 30.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 31.6	31.6 / 29.4
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.3

Line O/U58.5

Diff.2.8

Over / Under70% / 30%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.88

X8.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.88

Under 58.51.88

Diff.: 2.8 · Est. total: 61.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.88 → 1.88	Bet365 1.88
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:08 +39’	1.88	8.00	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caserio Ciudad Real 5–0–1 CMB Sporting Alicante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Spain Liga Asobal	CMB Sporting Alicante	26-31	Caserio Ciudad Real
29/11/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Caserio Ciudad Real	33-23	CMB Sporting Alicante
16/04/25 Spain Div. Honor Plata	CMB Sporting Alicante	30-29	Caserio Ciudad Real
30/11/24 Spain Div. Honor Plata	Caserio Ciudad Real	34-31	CMB Sporting Alicante
25/02/24 Spain Div. Honor Plata	Caserio Ciudad Real	37-29	CMB Sporting Alicante
21/10/23 Spain Div. Honor Plata	CMB Sporting Alicante	26-29	Caserio Ciudad Real

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Barcelona	1	1	0	0	48	32	2
2	Bidasoa Irun	1	1	0	0	35	25	2
3	BM Granollers	1	1	0	0	38	34	2
4	CMB Sporting Alicante	1	1	0	0	32	29	2
5	Atletico Valladolid	1	1	0	0	28	26	2
6	Puerto Sagunto	1	1	0	0	39	38	2
7	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	1	1	0	0	31	30	2
8	Caserio Ciudad Real	1	0	1	0	30	30	1
8	Villa De Aranda	1	0	1	0	30	30	1
10	Ademar Leon	1	0	0	1	38	39	0
11	BM Triana	1	0	0	1	30	31	0
12	Ciudad Encantada	1	0	0	1	26	28	0
13	BM Torrelavega	1	0	0	1	29	32	0
14	BM Cangas	1	0	0	1	34	38	0
15	BM Nava	1	0	0	1	25	35	0
16	BM Logrono La Rioja	1	0	0	1	32	48	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caserio Ciudad Real	CMB Sporting Alicante
Villa De Aranda	30-30 D	33-31 W
BM Granollers	29-38 L	31-28 W
BM Cangas	28-28 D	25-28 L
BM Torrelavega	28-35 L	32-29 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CMB Sporting Alicante (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caserio Ciudad Real

LWLLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	30-30	D
31/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	29-38	L
22/05	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	28-28	D
09/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
03/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-30	W
24/04	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-26	W
18/04	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	28-33	L
11/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	28-35	L
04/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	34-27	W
28/03	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	26-43	L

CMB Sporting Alicante

WLWLLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	32-29	W
31/05	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	34-27	W
22/05	BM Nava Spain Liga Asobal	32-34	L
08/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-32	W
02/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	25-25	D
24/04	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	26-31	L
18/04	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	35-38	L
11/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	31-28	W
05/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	25-28	L
28/03	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	33-31	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caserio Ciudad Real vs CMB Sporting Alicante?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Caserio Ciudad Real 57% · CMB Sporting Alicante 43%).

How many points are expected in Caserio Ciudad Real vs CMB Sporting Alicante?

The model estimates 61.3 total points (Caserio Ciudad Real 30.6 · CMB Sporting Alicante 30.7).

Over or under 58.5 points?

Recent history points to over 58.5 points (70%).