Handball · Spain Liga Asobal · 13/09, 18:30

Prediction: Villa De Aranda vs Caserio Ciudad Real

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.9Total

Villa De Aranda30.8

Caserio Ciudad Real29.1

1X2

64% 36%

Villa De Aranda Caserio Ciudad Real

Markets

Over 56.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Villa De Aranda 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLWLW

Caserio Ciudad Real 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Villa De Aranda 3–3 Caserio Ciudad Real (6 last)

Villa De Aranda32-26Caserio Ciudad Real
Caserio Ciudad Real22-19Villa De Aranda
Caserio Ciudad Real36-31Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda28-21Caserio Ciudad Real
Caserio Ciudad Real35-28Villa De Aranda
Villa De Aranda35-30Caserio Ciudad Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa De Aranda 1502 · Caserio Ciudad Real 1492

	Villa De Aranda	Caserio Ciudad Real
Our model	61%	39%
Market	58%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 59.9 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +3.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.9Villa De Aranda 30.8 · Caserio Ciudad Real 29.1

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Villa De Aranda	Caserio Ciudad Real
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 29.4	30 / 32.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.6 / 29.2	29.4 / 30.8
Est. result	31	29

Est. total59.9

Line O/U56.5

Diff.3.4

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.62

X8.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.88

Under 56.51.88

Diff.: 4.45 · Est. total: 60.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.62 → 1.62	Bet365 1.62
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49	1.62	8.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa De Aranda 3–0–3 Caserio Ciudad Real

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Spain Liga Asobal	Villa De Aranda	32-26	Caserio Ciudad Real
13/12/25 Spain Liga Asobal	Caserio Ciudad Real	22-19	Villa De Aranda
30/10/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Caserio Ciudad Real	36-31	Villa De Aranda
27/04/24 Spain Div. Honor Plata	Villa De Aranda	28-21	Caserio Ciudad Real
10/12/23 Spain Div. Honor Plata	Caserio Ciudad Real	35-28	Villa De Aranda
13/05/23 Spain Div. Honor Plata	Villa De Aranda	35-30	Caserio Ciudad Real

Standings · Spain Liga Asobal

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ademar Leon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bidasoa Irun	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Valladolid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caserio Ciudad Real	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ciudad Encantada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Granollers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Logrono La Rioja	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Nava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Torrelavega	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villa De Aranda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Cangas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puerto Sagunto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CMB Sporting Alicante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa De Aranda	Caserio Ciudad Real
BM Granollers	33-27 W	29-38 L
BM Cangas	26-28 L	28-28 D
Atletico Valladolid	33-29 W	33-30 W
CMB Sporting Alicante	31-33 L	31-26 W
BM Logrono La Rioja	26-35 L	28-33 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caserio Ciudad Real (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa De Aranda

LLWWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/05	Ademar Leon Spain Liga Asobal	35-33	W
22/05	Angel Ximenez-Puente Genil Spain Liga Asobal	27-28	L
09/05	Caserio Ciudad Real Spain Liga Asobal	32-26	W
02/05	Bidasoa Irun Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
25/04	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	33-27	W
19/04	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	26-28	L
12/04	Ciudad Encantada Spain Liga Asobal	33-23	W
05/04	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-29	W
28/03	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-33	L
15/03	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	26-35	L

Caserio Ciudad Real

WLWLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/05	BM Granollers Spain Liga Asobal	29-38	L
22/05	BM Cangas Spain Liga Asobal	28-28	D
09/05	Villa De Aranda Spain Liga Asobal	26-32	L
03/05	Atletico Valladolid Spain Liga Asobal	33-30	W
24/04	CMB Sporting Alicante Spain Liga Asobal	31-26	W
18/04	BM Logrono La Rioja Spain Liga Asobal	28-33	L
11/04	BM Torrelavega Spain Liga Asobal	28-35	L
04/04	BM Guadalajara Spain Liga Asobal	34-27	W
28/03	FC Barcelona Spain Liga Asobal	26-43	L
15/03	BM Huesca Spain Liga Asobal	37-31	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa De Aranda vs Caserio Ciudad Real?

Our model gives 64% to Villa De Aranda.

How many points are expected in Villa De Aranda vs Caserio Ciudad Real?

The model estimates 59.9 total points (Villa De Aranda 30.8 · Caserio Ciudad Real 29.1).