Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 23/09, 21:00

Prediction: Vitoria SC vs Aguas Santas

Team pages: Vitoria SC · Aguas Santas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59Total

Vitoria SC31.2

Aguas Santas27.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

56% 44%

Vitoria SC Aguas Santas

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria SC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLWLW

Aguas Santas 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Vitoria SC 2–1–3 Aguas Santas (6 last)

Aguas Santas27-27Vitoria SC
Aguas Santas32-26Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC28-25Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas26-27Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC22-23Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas28-27Vitoria SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria SC 1532 · Aguas Santas 1443

	Vitoria SC	Aguas Santas
Our model	71%	29%
Market	41%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 59 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59Vitoria SC 31.2 · Aguas Santas 27.8

Match keys

H2H favours Aguas Santas: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vitoria SC	Aguas Santas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 27.3	27.5 / 33.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 28.8	28.2 / 31.2
Est. result	31	28

Est. total59

Line O/U57.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

X8.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.95

Under 57.51.75

Diff.: 2 · Est. total: 59.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:33 +22’	2.20	8.00	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria SC 2–1–3 Aguas Santas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Portugal Cup	Aguas Santas	27-27	Vitoria SC
10/12/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	32-26	Vitoria SC
27/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-25	Aguas Santas
24/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	26-27	Vitoria SC
05/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	22-23	Aguas Santas
18/12/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	28-27	Vitoria SC

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	4	4	0	158	107	12
2	Madeira	4	4	0	130	105	12
3	FC Porto	3	3	0	119	78	9
4	SL Benfica	4	2	2	131	122	8
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	4	2	2	122	120	8
6	Aguas Santas	4	2	2	112	114	8
7	Vitoria SC	4	2	2	124	119	8
8	ABC Braga	3	2	1	91	100	7
9	Belenenses	4	1	3	105	123	6
10	GC Santo Tirso	4	1	3	107	127	6
11	AD Carvalhos	4	0	4	98	130	4
12	AA Avanca	4	0	4	99	151	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria SC	Aguas Santas
Madeira	37-38 L	27-29 L
AD Carvalhos	35-28 W	31-23 W
Belenenses	24-27 L	31-28 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguas Santas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria SC

WDLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
12/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W
29/08	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	24-27	L
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
02/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	35-23	W
25/04	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	23-26	L
11/04	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D
28/03	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W

Aguas Santas

LLLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-29	L
12/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-23	W
05/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-28	W
29/08	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	23-34	L
23/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-42	L
09/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-37	L
02/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	25-31	L
24/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-41	L
12/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
29/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria SC vs Aguas Santas?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Vitoria SC 56% · Aguas Santas 44%).

How many points are expected in Vitoria SC vs Aguas Santas?

The model estimates 59 total points (Vitoria SC 31.2 · Aguas Santas 27.8).