Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Aguas Santas vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Team pages: Aguas Santas · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.7Total

Aguas Santas29.7

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao31.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Aguas Santas Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 56.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguas Santas 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWLLW

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Aguas Santas 6–0 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao (6 last)

Aguas Santas21-19Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao22-27Aguas Santas
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao22-26Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas28-27Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao23-25Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas29-28Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguas Santas 1467 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 1502

	Aguas Santas	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Our model	55%	45%
Market	43%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 60.7 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +4.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.7Aguas Santas 29.7 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 31.1

Match keys

H2H favours Aguas Santas: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aguas Santas	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.6 / 32.9	31.3 / 30.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 28.8	31.6 / 30.6
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.7

Line O/U56.5

Diff.4.2

Over / Under85% / 15%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.10

X8.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.72

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.95

Under 56.51.75

Diff.: 5.2 · Est. total: 61.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +53’	2.10	8.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguas Santas 6–0–0 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	21-19	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
13/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	22-27	Aguas Santas
22/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	22-26	Aguas Santas
26/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	28-27	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
04/05/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	23-25	Aguas Santas
13/04/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	29-28	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	6	6	0	245	161	18
2	FC Porto	6	6	0	233	153	18
3	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
4	SL Benfica	6	4	2	208	176	14
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	6	3	3	189	185	12
6	Vitoria SC	6	3	3	184	178	12
7	ABC Braga	6	3	3	183	206	12
8	Aguas Santas	6	3	3	179	178	12
9	AA Avanca	6	1	5	150	215	8
10	GC Santo Tirso	6	1	5	166	199	8
11	Belenenses	6	1	5	158	197	8
12	AD Carvalhos	6	0	6	149	214	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguas Santas	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Vitoria SC	29-33 L	30-27 W
Madeira	27-29 L	37-38 L
AD Carvalhos	31-23 W	33-26 W
Belenenses	31-28 W	28-25 W
SL Benfica	23-34 L	30-37 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Povoa Andebol/Bodegao (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguas Santas

LLLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	38-31	W
23/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	29-33	L
19/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-29	L
12/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-23	W
05/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-28	W
29/08	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	23-34	L
23/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-42	L
09/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-37	L
02/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	25-31	L
24/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-41	L

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

WLWDLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
23/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
19/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	33-26	W
12/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-25	W
05/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	30-37	L
29/08	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-32	L
23/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
09/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
03/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-35	L
25/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguas Santas vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Aguas Santas 51% · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 49%).

How many points are expected in Aguas Santas vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

The model estimates 60.7 total points (Aguas Santas 29.7 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 31.1).