Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 03/10, 19:30

Prediction: Vitoria SC vs FC Porto

Team pages: Vitoria SC · FC Porto

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.6Total

Vitoria SC27.9

FC Porto32.7

1X2

24% 76%

Vitoria SC FC Porto

Markets

Under 65.5 points 85%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria SC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLWWL

FC Porto 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Vitoria SC 0–6 FC Porto (6 last)

FC Porto29-19Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC22-38FC Porto
Vitoria SC21-36FC Porto
FC Porto42-22Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC23-41FC Porto
FC Porto39-26Vitoria SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria SC 1513 · FC Porto 1609

	Vitoria SC	FC Porto
Our model	46%	54%
Market	8%	87%

Estimated total (ours) 60.6 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -4.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.6Vitoria SC 27.9 · FC Porto 32.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1513 vs 1609).
FC Porto is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours FC Porto: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Vitoria SC	FC Porto
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.7 / 27.9	37.4 / 27.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32 / 30.2	38.2 / 26.6
Est. result	28	33

Est. total60.6

Line O/U65.5

Diff.4.9

Over / Under15% / 85%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

111.00

X18.00

21.04

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.85

2 (-8.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 3.8 · Est. total: 61.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00
X	20.00 → 18.00▼	Bet365 18.00
2	1.01 → 1.04▲	Bet365 1.04

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +39’	15.00	20.00	1.01
16:37 +1’	11.00▼	18.00▼	1.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria SC 0–0–6 FC Porto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	29-19	Vitoria SC
18/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	22-38	FC Porto
16/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	21-36	FC Porto
11/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	42-22	Vitoria SC
09/12/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	23-41	FC Porto
23/09/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	39-26	Vitoria SC

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	6	6	0	245	161	18
2	FC Porto	6	6	0	233	153	18
3	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
4	SL Benfica	6	4	2	208	176	14
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	6	3	3	189	185	12
6	Vitoria SC	6	3	3	184	178	12
7	ABC Braga	6	3	3	183	206	12
8	Aguas Santas	6	3	3	179	178	12
9	AA Avanca	6	1	5	150	215	8
10	GC Santo Tirso	6	1	5	166	199	8
11	Belenenses	6	1	5	158	197	8
12	AD Carvalhos	6	0	6	149	214	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria SC	FC Porto
Aguas Santas	33-29 W	42-29 W
Madeira	37-38 L	35-27 W
AD Carvalhos	35-28 W	40-24 W
Belenenses	24-27 L	40-25 W
AA Avanca	33-27 W	42-20 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria SC

LWWWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
23/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	33-29	W
19/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
12/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W
29/08	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	24-27	L
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
02/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	35-23	W
25/04	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	23-26	L

FC Porto

WLLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	39-24	W
27/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	35-27	W
23/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	40-24	W
20/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	40-25	W
12/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
29/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	42-20	W
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria SC vs FC Porto?

Our model gives 76% to FC Porto.

How many points are expected in Vitoria SC vs FC Porto?

The model estimates 60.6 total points (Vitoria SC 27.9 · FC Porto 32.7).