Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Belenenses vs ABC Braga

Team pages: Belenenses · ABC Braga

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.2Total

Belenenses30.7

ABC Braga30.6

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

38% 62%

Belenenses ABC Braga

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Belenenses 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLLLLL

ABC Braga 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Belenenses 2–1–3 ABC Braga (6 last)

Belenenses31-27ABC Braga
ABC Braga31-31Belenenses
ABC Braga32-31Belenenses
Belenenses29-28ABC Braga
ABC Braga35-30Belenenses
Belenenses31-33ABC Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belenenses 1443 · ABC Braga 1465

	Belenenses	ABC Braga
Our model	57%	43%
Market	22%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 61.2 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.2Belenenses 30.7 · ABC Braga 30.6

Match keys

H2H favours ABC Braga: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Belenenses	ABC Braga
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.8 / 32	29.7 / 33.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.2 / 34.6	30.2 / 35
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.2

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.00

X9.50

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 61.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +11’	4.00	9.50	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Belenenses 2–1–3 ABC Braga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	31-27	ABC Braga
28/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	31-31	Belenenses
29/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	32-31	Belenenses
13/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	29-28	ABC Braga
24/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	35-30	Belenenses
05/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	31-33	ABC Braga

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	6	6	0	245	161	18
2	FC Porto	6	6	0	233	153	18
3	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
4	SL Benfica	6	4	2	208	176	14
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	6	3	3	189	185	12
6	Vitoria SC	6	3	3	184	178	12
7	ABC Braga	6	3	3	183	206	12
8	Aguas Santas	6	3	3	179	178	12
9	AA Avanca	6	1	5	150	215	8
10	GC Santo Tirso	6	1	5	166	199	8
11	Belenenses	6	1	5	158	197	8
12	AD Carvalhos	6	0	6	149	214	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belenenses	ABC Braga
AA Avanca	26-31 L	27-26 W
Sporting Clube	27-43 L	32-43 L
FC Porto	25-40 L	24-39 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	25-28 L	32-31 W
Madeira	30-32 L	33-37 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ABC Braga (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belenenses

LWLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
23/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-43	L
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	25-40	L
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
25/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L

ABC Braga

LLLLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-39	L
26/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	34-39	L
23/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	34-28	W
19/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	27-26	W
13/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	32-43	L
29/08	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
23/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
09/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
02/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
26/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belenenses vs ABC Braga?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Belenenses 38% · ABC Braga 62%).

How many points are expected in Belenenses vs ABC Braga?

The model estimates 61.2 total points (Belenenses 30.7 · ABC Braga 30.6).