Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 30/09, 21:00

Prediction: FC Porto vs ABC Braga

Team pages: FC Porto · ABC Braga

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.3Total

FC Porto35.1

ABC Braga29.2

1X2

86% 14%

FC Porto ABC Braga

Markets

Under 67.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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ABC Braga 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

FC Porto 5–1–0 ABC Braga (6 last)

FC Porto32-32ABC Braga
ABC Braga25-35FC Porto
ABC Braga22-31FC Porto
FC Porto38-28ABC Braga
FC Porto34-25ABC Braga
ABC Braga24-26FC Porto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto 1585 · ABC Braga 1458

	FC Porto	ABC Braga
Our model	76%	24%
Market	89%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 64.3 points · Bet365 line 67.5 · -3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.3FC Porto 35.1 · ABC Braga 29.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1585 vs 1458).
FC Porto is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours FC Porto: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	FC Porto	ABC Braga
Points F\|A (Last 10)	37.7 / 28.2	30 / 32.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	38.8 / 25.8	31.8 / 33.4
Est. result	35	29

Est. total64.3

Line O/U67.5

Diff.3.2

Over / Under25% / 75%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.01

X20.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.95

2 (+11.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 67.51.85

Under 67.51.85

Diff.: 3.25 · Est. total: 64.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
X	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +54’	1.01	20.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 5–1–0 ABC Braga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	32-32	ABC Braga
17/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	25-35	FC Porto
15/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	22-31	FC Porto
19/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	38-28	ABC Braga
18/05/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	34-25	ABC Braga
20/04/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	24-26	FC Porto

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	6	6	0	245	161	18
2	FC Porto	6	6	0	233	153	18
3	Madeira	6	5	1	195	177	16
4	SL Benfica	6	4	2	208	176	14
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	6	3	3	189	185	12
6	Vitoria SC	6	3	3	184	178	12
7	ABC Braga	6	3	3	183	206	12
8	Aguas Santas	6	3	3	179	178	12
9	AA Avanca	6	1	5	150	215	8
10	GC Santo Tirso	6	1	5	166	199	8
11	Belenenses	6	1	5	158	197	8
12	AD Carvalhos	6	0	6	149	214	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto	ABC Braga
Madeira	35-27 W	33-37 L
Belenenses	40-25 W	27-31 L
SL Benfica	37-33 W	34-39 L
AA Avanca	42-20 W	27-26 W
Sporting Clube	29-36 L	32-43 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	35-27	W
23/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	40-24	W
20/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	40-25	W
12/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
29/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	42-20	W
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W
11/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	42-32	W

ABC Braga

LLLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	34-39	L
23/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	34-28	W
19/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	27-26	W
13/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	32-43	L
29/08	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
23/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
09/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
02/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
26/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
11/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs ABC Braga?

Our model gives 86% to FC Porto.

How many points are expected in FC Porto vs ABC Braga?

The model estimates 64.3 total points (FC Porto 35.1 · ABC Braga 29.2).