Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 26/09, 19:30

Prediction: Povoa Andebol/Bodegao vs Vitoria SC

Team pages: Povoa Andebol/Bodegao · Vitoria SC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.4Total

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao29.9

Vitoria SC30.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Vitoria SC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLWWL

Vitoria SC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 3–1–2 Vitoria SC (6 last)

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao34-29Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC23-26Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao26-28Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC28-20Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Vitoria SC23-23Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao21-18Vitoria SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 1513 · Vitoria SC 1535

	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	Vitoria SC
Our model	57%	43%
Market	62%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 60.4 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +1.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.4Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 29.9 · Vitoria SC 30.5

Match keys

H2H favours Povoa Andebol/Bodegao: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	Vitoria SC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.4 / 30.6	30.6 / 27.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.8 / 31.6	31.4 / 29.6
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.4

Line O/U58.5

Diff.1.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

X8.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 1.55 · Est. total: 60.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
02:03 +2’	1.45	8.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 3–1–2 Vitoria SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	34-29	Vitoria SC
06/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	23-26	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
11/12/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	26-28	Vitoria SC
28/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-20	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
06/04/24 Portugal Cup	Vitoria SC	23-23	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
23/03/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	21-18	Vitoria SC

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	5	5	0	201	134	15
2	Madeira	5	5	0	168	142	15
3	FC Porto	4	4	0	159	102	12
4	SL Benfica	5	3	2	169	142	11
5	Vitoria SC	5	3	2	157	148	11
6	ABC Braga	4	3	1	125	128	10
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	5	2	3	159	158	9
8	Aguas Santas	5	2	3	141	147	9
9	GC Santo Tirso	5	1	4	135	161	7
10	Belenenses	5	1	4	132	166	7
11	AD Carvalhos	5	0	5	122	170	5
12	AA Avanca	5	0	5	119	189	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	Vitoria SC
Madeira	37-38 L	37-38 L
AD Carvalhos	33-26 W	35-28 W
Belenenses	28-25 W	24-27 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Povoa Andebol/Bodegao (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

WWLWDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
19/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	33-26	W
12/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-25	W
05/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	30-37	L
29/08	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-32	L
23/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
09/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
03/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-35	L
25/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W
11/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W

Vitoria SC

DLWWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	33-29	W
19/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W
12/09	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	37-38	L
05/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-28	W
29/08	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	24-27	L
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
02/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	35-23	W
25/04	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	23-26	L
11/04	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Povoa Andebol/Bodegao vs Vitoria SC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 64% · Vitoria SC 36%).

How many points are expected in Povoa Andebol/Bodegao vs Vitoria SC?

The model estimates 60.4 total points (Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 29.9 · Vitoria SC 30.5).