Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Porto vs Madeira

Team pages: FC Porto · Madeira

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.8Total

FC Porto33.6

Madeira30.1

1X2

82% 18%

FC Porto Madeira

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWWWWW

Madeira 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Porto 5–1–0 Madeira (6 last)

Madeira28-34FC Porto
FC Porto27-27Madeira
Madeira29-36FC Porto
FC Porto39-26Madeira
Madeira27-40FC Porto
FC Porto41-25Madeira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto 1584 · Madeira 1580

	FC Porto	Madeira
Our model	60%	40%
Market	92%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 63.8 points · Bet365 line 67.5 · -3.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.8FC Porto 33.6 · Madeira 30.1

Match keys

FC Porto is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours FC Porto: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	FC Porto	Madeira
Points F\|A (Last 10)	37.2 / 28.8	33 / 28.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	40.2 / 26.2	33.6 / 28.4
Est. result	34	30

Est. total63.8

Line O/U67.5

Diff.3.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.00

X28.00

222.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-12.5)1.85

2 (+12.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 67.51.85

Under 67.51.85

Diff.: 3.6 · Est. total: 63.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00
X	28.00 → 28.00	Bet365 28.00
2	22.00 → 22.00	Bet365 22.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26	1.00	28.00	22.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 5–1–0 Madeira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	28-34	FC Porto
04/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	27-27	Madeira
28/03/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	29-36	FC Porto
22/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	39-26	Madeira
26/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	27-40	FC Porto
03/04/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	41-25	Madeira

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	5	5	0	201	134	15
2	Madeira	5	5	0	168	142	15
3	FC Porto	4	4	0	159	102	12
4	SL Benfica	5	3	2	169	142	11
5	Vitoria SC	5	3	2	157	148	11
6	ABC Braga	4	3	1	125	128	10
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	5	2	3	159	158	9
8	Aguas Santas	5	2	3	141	147	9
9	GC Santo Tirso	5	1	4	135	161	7
10	Belenenses	5	1	4	132	166	7
11	AD Carvalhos	5	0	5	122	170	5
12	AA Avanca	5	0	5	119	189	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto	Madeira
AD Carvalhos	40-24 W	31-21 W
Belenenses	40-25 W	32-30 W
Aguas Santas	42-29 W	29-27 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

LWWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	40-24	W
20/09	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	40-25	W
12/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
29/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	42-20	W
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W
11/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	42-32	W
28/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-33	L

Madeira

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
10/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	32-30	W
03/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W
26/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
11/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Madeira?

Our model gives 82% to FC Porto.

How many points are expected in FC Porto vs Madeira?

The model estimates 63.8 total points (FC Porto 33.6 · Madeira 30.1).