Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 25/10, 18:00

Prediction: SL Benfica vs Madeira

Team pages: SL Benfica · Madeira

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63Total

SL Benfica32.7

Madeira30.4

1X2

76% 24%

SL Benfica Madeira

Recent form · 10 last

SL Benfica 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWWWWW

Madeira 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

SL Benfica 6–0 Madeira (6 last)

SL Benfica40-30Madeira
Madeira30-38SL Benfica
SL Benfica38-28Madeira
Madeira26-29SL Benfica
SL Benfica35-25Madeira
Madeira24-31SL Benfica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SL Benfica 1548 · Madeira 1583

	SL Benfica	Madeira
Our model	55%	45%
Market	85%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 63 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63SL Benfica 32.7 · Madeira 30.4

Match keys

SL Benfica is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours SL Benfica: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SL Benfica	Madeira
Points F\|A (Last 10)	33.8 / 28.8	33.2 / 29.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	37 / 26.4	32.4 / 30.4
Est. result	33	30

Est. total63

Line O/U65.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.06

X16.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.95

2 (+8.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 2.95 · Est. total: 62.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06
X	16.00 → 16.00	Bet365 16.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +33’	1.06	16.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SL Benfica 6–0–0 Madeira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	40-30	Madeira
17/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	30-38	SL Benfica
31/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	38-28	Madeira
25/04/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	26-29	SL Benfica
15/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	35-25	Madeira
11/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	24-31	SL Benfica

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	8	8	0	0	333	212	24
2	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	323	207	24
3	SL Benfica	9	7	0	2	316	254	23
4	Madeira	8	7	0	1	263	230	22
5	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	9	5	0	4	283	286	19
6	ABC Braga	9	4	0	5	267	292	17
7	Vitoria SC	9	3	1	5	248	296	16
8	Belenenses	9	3	0	6	244	276	15
9	Aguas Santas	8	3	0	5	237	247	14
10	AA Avanca	9	1	1	7	217	297	12
11	GC Santo Tirso	9	1	0	8	236	293	11
12	AD Carvalhos	9	1	0	8	227	304	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SL Benfica	Madeira
AD Carvalhos	35-26 W	31-21 W
Belenenses	35-31 W	32-30 W
GC Santo Tirso	38-21 W	32-20 W
ABC Braga	39-34 W	32-31 W
AA Avanca	38-20 W	36-22 W
FC Porto	33-37 L	27-35 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	37-30 W	38-37 W
Aguas Santas	34-23 W	29-27 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SL Benfica (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SL Benfica

LWWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/10	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	35-26	W
10/10	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	35-31	W
03/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	38-21	W
26/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	39-34	W
23/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	38-20	W
19/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-32	L
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W
29/08	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	34-23	W
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L

Madeira

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
10/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	36-22	W
27/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
10/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	32-30	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SL Benfica vs Madeira?

Our model gives 76% to SL Benfica.

How many points are expected in SL Benfica vs Madeira?

The model estimates 63 total points (SL Benfica 32.7 · Madeira 30.4).