Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: Madeira vs Belenenses

Team pages: Madeira · Belenenses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.5Total

Madeira31.7

Belenenses27.8

1X2

80% 20%

Madeira Belenenses

Recent form · 10 last

Madeira 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWW

Belenenses 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Madeira 5–1–0 Belenenses (6 last)

Madeira32-30Belenenses
Belenenses26-28Madeira
Madeira28-24Belenenses
Belenenses28-28Madeira
Belenenses28-36Madeira
Madeira33-27Belenenses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madeira 1614 · Belenenses 1450

	Madeira	Belenenses
Our model	79%	21%
Market	73%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 59.5 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.5Madeira 31.7 · Belenenses 27.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madeira (rating 1614 vs 1450).
Madeira is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours Madeira: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Madeira	Belenenses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.8 / 29	28 / 30.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.2 / 30.4	29.6 / 28.2
Est. result	32	28

Est. total59.5

Line O/U58.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 1.75 · Est. total: 60.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +52’	1.22	10.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madeira 5–1–0 Belenenses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	32-30	Belenenses
11/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	26-28	Madeira
07/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	28-24	Belenenses
15/11/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	28-28	Madeira
18/12/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	28-36	Madeira
05/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Madeira	33-27	Belenenses

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	9	9	0	0	376	243	27
2	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	370	237	27
3	Madeira	9	8	0	1	291	257	25
4	SL Benfica	10	7	0	3	343	282	24
5	ABC Braga	10	5	0	5	297	321	20
6	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	10	5	0	5	314	329	20
7	Belenenses	10	4	0	6	280	307	18
8	Vitoria SC	10	3	1	6	277	326	17
9	Aguas Santas	9	4	0	5	271	271	17
10	AA Avanca	10	1	1	8	241	331	13
11	GC Santo Tirso	10	1	0	9	266	340	12
12	AD Carvalhos	10	1	0	9	258	340	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madeira	Belenenses
SL Benfica	28-27 W	31-35 L
ABC Braga	32-31 W	28-23 W
AA Avanca	36-22 W	26-31 L
FC Porto	27-35 L	25-40 L
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	38-37 W	25-28 L
Aguas Santas	29-27 W	28-31 L
Vitoria SC	38-37 W	27-24 W
GC Santo Tirso	32-20 W	27-21 W
AD Carvalhos	31-21 W	36-31 W
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Madeira (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madeira

WWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	28-27	W
20/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	32-31	W
10/10	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	36-22	W
27/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
23/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
19/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	29-27	W
12/09	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	38-37	W
05/09	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	32-20	W
29/08	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	31-21	W
23/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W

Belenenses

WLLLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	AD Carvalhos Portugal Liga Andebol	36-31	W
17/10	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	27-21	W
10/10	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	31-35	L
03/10	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	28-23	W
26/09	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
23/09	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-43	L
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	25-40	L
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madeira vs Belenenses?

Our model gives 80% to Madeira.

How many points are expected in Madeira vs Belenenses?

The model estimates 59.5 total points (Madeira 31.7 · Belenenses 27.8).