Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Belenenses vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Team pages: Belenenses · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.4Total

Belenenses28.4

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao30

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

56% 44%

Belenenses Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Belenenses 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLDWL

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Belenenses 1–2–3 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao (6 last)

Belenenses33-33Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao31-26Belenenses
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao24-24Belenenses
Belenenses27-30Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao31-27Belenenses
Belenenses27-23Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belenenses 1447 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 1502

	Belenenses	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Our model	52%	48%
Market	52%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 58.4 points · Bet365 line 58.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.4Belenenses 28.4 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 30

Match keys

H2H favours Povoa Andebol/Bodegao: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Belenenses	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.7 / 29.8	30.6 / 29.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.8 / 29.4	30.8 / 32.8
Est. result	28	30

Est. total58.4

Line O/U58.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.75

X8.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.75

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.95

Under 58.51.75

Diff.: 0.5 · Est. total: 59

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +13’	1.75	8.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Belenenses 1–2–3 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	33-33	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
25/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	31-26	Belenenses
11/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	24-24	Belenenses
11/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	27-30	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
16/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	31-27	Belenenses
01/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	27-23	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	2	2	0	83	48	6
2	Madeira	2	2	0	63	41	6
3	SL Benfica	2	2	0	71	53	6
4	Belenenses	2	1	1	55	55	4
5	Aguas Santas	2	1	1	54	62	4
6	Vitoria SC	2	1	1	59	55	4
7	FC Porto	1	1	0	42	20	3
8	ABC Braga	1	1	0	32	31	3
9	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	2	0	2	61	69	2
10	AD Carvalhos	2	0	2	49	66	2
11	GC Santo Tirso	2	0	2	45	69	2
12	AA Avanca	2	0	2	43	88	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belenenses	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Madeira	30-32 L	30-35 L
ABC Braga	31-27 W	31-32 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Belenenses (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belenenses

LLDLLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
25/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
11/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	26-28	L
28/03	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-31	D
07/03	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	24-28	L
28/02	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	21-33	L

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

WWLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	30-37	L
29/08	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-32	L
23/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
09/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
03/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-35	L
25/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W
11/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
28/03	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	31-32	L
07/03	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	28-24	W
28/02	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belenenses vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Belenenses 56% · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 44%).

How many points are expected in Belenenses vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

The model estimates 58.4 total points (Belenenses 28.4 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 30).