Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 19/09, 19:30

Prediction: Sporting Clube vs SL Benfica

Team pages: Sporting Clube · SL Benfica

Prediction summary

Estimated points

65.1Total

Sporting Clube35

SL Benfica30.2

1X2

84% 16%

Sporting Clube SL Benfica

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Clube 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

SL Benfica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Sporting Clube 5–1–0 SL Benfica (6 last)

Sporting Clube31-24SL Benfica
SL Benfica35-35Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube34-22SL Benfica
SL Benfica28-40Sporting Clube
SL Benfica29-37Sporting Clube
Sporting Clube42-32SL Benfica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Clube 1682 · SL Benfica 1512

	Sporting Clube	SL Benfica
Our model	80%	20%
Market	81%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 65.1 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points65.1Sporting Clube 35 · SL Benfica 30.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Clube (rating 1682 vs 1512).
Sporting Clube is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours Sporting Clube: 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Sporting Clube	SL Benfica
Points F\|A (Last 10)	38.3 / 27.6	31.3 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	39.4 / 26.2	31.6 / 30.6
Est. result	35	30

Est. total65.1

Line O/U62.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.11

X13.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.85

2 (+6.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.75

Under 62.51.95

Diff.: 1.9 · Est. total: 64.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55	1.11	13.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Clube 5–1–0 SL Benfica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Portugal Super Cup	Sporting Clube	31-24	SL Benfica
07/06/26 Portugal Cup	SL Benfica	35-35	Sporting Clube
23/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	34-22	SL Benfica
24/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	28-40	Sporting Clube
19/12/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	29-37	Sporting Clube
13/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Sporting Clube	42-32	SL Benfica

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	3	3	0	126	80	9
2	Madeira	3	3	0	101	78	9
3	SL Benfica	3	2	1	104	90	7
4	Aguas Santas	3	2	1	85	85	7
5	FC Porto	2	2	0	79	53	6
6	Belenenses	3	1	2	80	83	5
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	3	1	2	89	94	5
8	Vitoria SC	3	1	2	96	93	5
9	GC Santo Tirso	3	1	2	81	99	5
10	ABC Braga	2	1	1	64	74	4
11	AD Carvalhos	3	0	3	72	97	3
12	AA Avanca	3	0	3	73	124	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Clube	SL Benfica
Aguas Santas	37-29 W	34-23 W
FC Porto	36-29 W	33-37 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Clube

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	43-32	W
29/08	GC Santo Tirso Portugal Liga Andebol	37-25	W
26/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	46-23	W
23/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	34-22	W
09/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	37-29	W
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	36-29	W
24/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	40-28	W
12/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	36-29	W
28/03	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-30	W
08/03	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	41-29	W

SL Benfica

DWLLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
05/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	37-30	W
29/08	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	34-23	W
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L
09/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-29	W
02/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	31-25	W
24/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	28-40	L
11/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-42	L
29/03	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	35-27	W
07/03	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Clube vs SL Benfica?

Our model gives 84% to Sporting Clube.

How many points are expected in Sporting Clube vs SL Benfica?

The model estimates 65.1 total points (Sporting Clube 35 · SL Benfica 30.2).