Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Porto vs Belenenses

Team pages: FC Porto · Belenenses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.5Total

FC Porto33.4

Belenenses28.1

1X2

88% 12%

FC Porto Belenenses

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLWWW

Belenenses 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLDWLL

Head-to-head

FC Porto 6–0 Belenenses (6 last)

Belenenses20-39FC Porto
FC Porto41-34Belenenses
FC Porto41-33Belenenses
Belenenses23-28FC Porto
FC Porto38-25Belenenses
Belenenses29-40FC Porto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto 1590 · Belenenses 1435

	FC Porto	Belenenses
Our model	79%	21%
Market	89%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 61.5 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · -2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.5FC Porto 33.4 · Belenenses 28.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1590 vs 1435).
FC Porto is a clear favourite (88% market).
H2H favours FC Porto: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	FC Porto	Belenenses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	36.2 / 29.8	28.1 / 29.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35.8 / 30	28.6 / 29.6
Est. result	33	28

Est. total61.5

Line O/U63.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.01

X20.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-10.5)1.85

2 (+10.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.85

Under 63.51.85

Diff.: 1.8 · Est. total: 61.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
X	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +11’	1.01	20.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 6–0–0 Belenenses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	20-39	FC Porto
20/09/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	41-34	Belenenses
08/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	41-33	Belenenses
12/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	23-28	FC Porto
19/11/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	38-25	Belenenses
07/09/23 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	29-40	FC Porto

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	3	3	0	126	80	9
2	Madeira	3	3	0	101	78	9
3	SL Benfica	3	2	1	104	90	7
4	Aguas Santas	3	2	1	85	85	7
5	FC Porto	2	2	0	79	53	6
6	Belenenses	3	1	2	80	83	5
7	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	3	1	2	89	94	5
8	Vitoria SC	3	1	2	96	93	5
9	GC Santo Tirso	3	1	2	81	99	5
10	ABC Braga	2	1	1	64	74	4
11	AD Carvalhos	3	0	3	72	97	3
12	AA Avanca	3	0	3	73	124	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

DWLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	37-33	W
29/08	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	42-20	W
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W
11/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	42-32	W
28/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-33	L
14/03	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	41-30	W
07/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D

Belenenses

LDLLWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	25-28	L
05/09	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-31	L
29/08	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-24	W
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
25/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
11/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	26-28	L
28/03	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-31	D
07/03	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	24-28	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Belenenses?

Our model gives 88% to FC Porto.

How many points are expected in FC Porto vs Belenenses?

The model estimates 61.5 total points (FC Porto 33.4 · Belenenses 28.1).